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The Future of Television -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The activity in these areas has become intense, and large industries are facing off in what many see as a battle over our living rooms. In an effort to organize the flood of material and forecasts in these areas, I will begin to post related developments on this page. DFD, 8/97.
"The truth is that no one knows what to do." HSN Inc.
Chairman Barry Diller on HDTV. Quoted in Wall Street Journal,
9/12/97, p. A1. "...nobody's predicting that high-definition television is going to be rolled to a mass audience in a very quick time frame. " Tom Rogers, from John McLauglin's One on One with Tom Rogers, President and Founder, NBC Cable Television (8/97). Reprinted with Permission, Federal News Service (202 347-1400). -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Jesse Berst's Anchordesk" <anchordesk@lists.zdnet.com>, Fri. 03 Oct 1997 Subject: Why WebTV Will Fail in 97 and 98 __________Berst Alert___________________ BILL'S BILLION DOLLARS WON'T BE ENOUGH. WHY WEBTV (AND ITS COMPETITORS) WILL FAIL IN 97 AND 98 "Bill Gates admits he's already spent a billion on WebTV, his set-top box subsidiary. But you can't make a bad idea work just by spending more. The market's confused, the systems are incompatible and the customers are apathetic. Internet TV will have a slow ramp-up over the next two years, no matter how much more money Bill flushes away. " More info at http://www.zdnet.com/chkpt/adt1003ba/www.anchordesk.com/story/story_1318.html ____________________________ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- "With the introduction of mechanized transportation, people labeled the new fangled devices that appeared 'horseless carriages.' Most quickly realized however that the differences between a horse and what became known as an automobile were more striking than the similarities. To me the term "Web TV" is akin to horseless carriage or wireless telegraphy or radio with pictures. The term speaks to the present, but fails to capture the significance of the device." David Donnelly, June 1997, from "Convergence and Culture" presented at the International Television Symposium in Montreux, Switzerland. "...we are experiencing something truly rare, something that has not happened in many decades; we're witnessing the birth of a new medium of communication. Ironically, most people in the communication business have not realized this yet. They unwittingly and perhaps selfishly see new developments as extensions of their own media. What we are seeing now is a custody battle between the two parenting industries over this new medium in the middle of the second trimester." David Donnelly, June 1997, from "Convergence and Culture" presented at the International Television Symposium in Montreux, Switzerland. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- "DTV conversion, or at least a statistically significant, financially viable deployment of the technology, is the largest marketing challenge in the history of consumer electronics, and whatever happens, it will rock the very economic foundation of the broadcasting industry as we know it today. Unfortunately, HDTV, ATV, and now DTV, have been regarded as a science project by DTV conversion, or at least a statistically significant, financially viable deployment of the technology, is the largest marketing challenge in the history of consumer electronics, and whatever happens, it will rock the very economic foundation of the broadcasting industry as we know it today. Unfortunately, HDTV, ATV, and now DTV, have been regarded as a science project by industry executives. Only now are we beginning to see broadcast executives react to the business-model issues of DTV." Charles A. Pantuso, 970724.006, The Emperor's New Digital Clothes. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Despite intensive marketing efforts, WebTV and other products aimed at bringing the Internet to ordinary TV sets have failed to create much excitement, with only about 150,000 units sold since they were first introduced about a year ago, MSNBC reported Monday. Greg Blatnick, analyst with Zona Research, told the cable channel that Internet access devices will not catch on until they're priced at $100 or less. He also questioned whether the "interactive experience of surfing the Internet" may be incompatible with the passive experience of watching TV. "Maybe ... it's an oil-and-water situation," he commented. (from Studio Briefing, 8/26/97)
Within three years personal computers and television sets will be essentially the same device, and 100 million of them will be sold per year, a senior Microsoft exec predicted Wednesday. Speaking at the Windows World '97 exhibition in Makuhari, Japan, near Tokyo, Craig Mundie said that the advent of digital television will mean that personal computers will be able to process TV signals coming from terrestrial stations, satellites and cable as well as interactive programming from the Internet. (from Studio Briefing, 6/26/97)
"Leave TV alone. Got no money for new TV type HDTV. Poor got nothing but TV, and rich want to take that away." A handwritten note buried in the FCC Dockett 87-268 on Advanced Television
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